WTPA44 PHFO 150832

TCDCP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP182015

1100 PM HST WED OCT 14 2015



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NORA HAS BEEN DEGRADING UNDER STRONG

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT ACCORDING TO SHIPS

AND THE RECENT CIMSS ANALYSIS. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CLOSER TO

THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

GIVING WAY TO LOWER TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A BAND IN THE

EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK FINAL T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM HFO...JTWC...AND SAB AGAIN CAME IN AT 1.0 AND

1.5...RESPECTIVELY...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT.



NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEG...AT 6 KT TOWARD A

WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED

JUST NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY

WHILE THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPART STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

THAT SHOULD WEAKEN NORA TO A REMNANT LOW. THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW

IS FORECAST TO TAKE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND

FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. ALL OF

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING...WITH SHIPS SUGGESTING DISSIPATION AS

EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GFS AND ECMWF OPENING THE

SYSTEM INTO A TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WAS CHANGED LITTLE

FROM THE PRIOR PACKAGE...FOLLOWING THE LEFT SIDE OF A RATHER

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  15/0900Z 16.1N 151.9W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  15/1800Z 16.6N 152.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  16/0600Z 17.0N 152.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  16/1800Z 17.0N 153.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  17/0600Z 16.8N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER WROE