WTPA44 PHFO 142051

TCDCP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP182015

1100 AM HST WED OCT 14 2015



NORA IS BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE

PERSISTENT BURSTS OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE

NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THIS DISRUPTION MAY

BE DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...OR TWO STRONG GRAVITY

WAVES THAT EMANATED FROM THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE LAST 12

HOURS...OR BOTH. THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN

UNANIMOUSLY AT 1.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 25

KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE DISRUPTION TO THE LLCC MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION A BIT

UNCERTAIN. A LONGER TERM REPRESENTATIVE AVERAGE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS

290/3. NORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A

BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...AND THE

EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NORA...SO AT SOME POINT SOON THE DEEP

CONVECTION WILL EITHER BECOME DETACHED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...

OR BECOME WEAK AND INTERMITTENT. AT THAT POINT NORA WILL BECOME A

SHALLOW POST-TROPICAL LOW AND STEERED COMPLETELY BY THE LOW LEVEL

TRADE WIND BACKGROUND FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS A

REMNANT LOW LEVEL CENTER THROUGH 72 HOURS...IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT

IT MAY DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER GIVEN THE RECENT DISRUPTION.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  14/2100Z 15.1N 151.1W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  15/0600Z 15.3N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH

 24H  15/1800Z 15.6N 152.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  16/0600Z 15.8N 153.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  16/1800Z 15.8N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  17/1800Z 15.4N 156.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECAST R BALLARD