WTPA44 PHFO 140234

TCDCP4



TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP182015

500 PM HST TUE OCT 13 2015



SINCE THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF NORA HAS

REMAINED EXPOSED AND THE COLD...HIGH CLOUD TOPS OVER NORA HAVE

SHIFTED FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SPIRALING LOW CLOUDS

MAKE IT EASY TO LOCATE THE CENTER AND DETERMINE THE CURRENT MOTION

WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES

AT 7 KNOTS.



SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES WERE 2.0/30 KNOTS FROM PHFO..SAB AND

JTWC...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 2.6/37 KNOTS. A 903 AM ASCAT PASS

SHOWED 35 KT WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTH QUADRANT

OF THE STORM. I HAVE LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS...

WITH TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE

SYSTEM.



A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING SOUTH BETWEEN 150W AND 160W CONTINUES

PRODUCING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...VWS...OVER NORA. SHIPS SHOWS

30 KT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND UW-CIMSS SHOWS 30 KT FROM THE

SOUTHWEST. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...SST...WILL REMAIN A RATHER

WARM 28 DEGREES CELSIUS AS NORA MOVES NORTHWEST...BUT THE VWS IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR NORA TO KEEP WEAKENING. NORA IS

EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND TO A

POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



NORA IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

PRODUCED BY THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT TO THE NORTH. NORA IS EXPECTED TO

CURVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WITH A DECREASE IN

FORWARD MOTION THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE REMNANT OF NORA IS

FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES A MORE

SHALLOW SYSTEM MOVING ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL EAST NORTHEAST FLOW.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  14/0300Z 15.0N 150.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  14/1200Z 15.5N 150.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  15/0000Z 16.0N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  15/1200Z 16.5N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  16/0000Z 16.9N 152.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  17/0000Z 17.0N 154.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  18/0000Z 16.0N 157.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON