WTPA44 PHFO 112040

TCDCP4



TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP182015

1100 AM HST SUN OCT 11 2015



SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF AN IRREGULAR 140 TO 150 NM

DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AREA WITH A PROMINENT RAIN BAND

ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK EXTENDING EASTWARD. A SINGLE OUTFLOW

CHANNEL EXTENDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. A 1642 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE

PASS SHOWED EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...WHICH WAS EASIER TO SEE AT 85 GHZ

THAN 37 GHZ. OVERALL ORGANIZATION APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED A BIT

SINCE LAST NIGHT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

RANGED FROM 3.5...55 KT...FROM PHFO AND JTWC...TO 4.0...65 KT...FROM

SAB. UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 3.9...63 KT. WE WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THESE

ESTIMATES AND ASSIGN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY...REPRESENTING SOME STRENGTHENING SINCE EARLIER THIS

MORNING.



NORA APPEARS TO BE TAKING A RATHER WOBBLY TRACK GENERALLY TOWARD

THE WEST NORTHWEST. LONG TERM MOTION...OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24

HOURS...IS ABOUT 290/12 KT. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MOTION IS MORE

LIKE 305/12 KT. SINCE THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS CYCLE...NORA APPEARS TO

HAVE RESUMED A MORE WESTERLY MOTION ONCE AGAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...THE

ASSIGNED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/12 KT...A COMPROMISE OF SHORT AND

LONG TERM MOTION...IMMEDIATELY TAKES THIS SYSTEM TO THE RIGHT OF

THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND JUST OUTSIDE THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE FINAL FORECAST TRACK FALLS BACK

WITHIN THIS ENVELOPE BY 48 HOURS...THEN FOLLOWS THE TVCN CONSENSUS

TRACK THROUGH EXPECTED RECURVATURE. THIS REPRESENTS A FORECAST

TRACK ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT ALL TAU. THE

MAIN TRACK FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE TIMING OF RECURVATURE AS

DEEP TROUGHING NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MOVES EASTWARD AND

WEAKENS THE RIDGE NORTH OF NORA...THEN SCOOPS NORA NORTHEASTWARD OUT

OF THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS TIMING VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL...AND

FROM RUN TO RUN...SO EXPECT FUTURE TRACK CHANGES AS GUIDANCE

GRAPPLES WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH. IN SPITE OF THIS

UNCERTAINTY...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EITHER RECURVES NORA NORTHEASTWARD

FAR FROM HAWAII...OR DECAPITATES NORA AND SHOVES THE REMNANTS WEST

SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADES.



THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS SHEAR REMAINS

RELATIVELY LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST

TRACK REMAIN NEAR 29C. WE FORECAST NORA WILL REACH HURRICANE

STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH THROUGH 24

HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE

APPROACH OF THE DEEP TROUGH. THIS IS IN LINE WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE

THROUGH 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...WE KEEP NORA AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM

STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS WHILE SHIPS DISSIPATES IT. THE FORECAST

WEAKENING TREND FOLLOWS...BUT IS JUST BELOW...THE TRENDS DEPICTED IN

GFS AND ECMWF.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/2100Z 12.9N 143.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  12/0600Z 13.4N 144.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  12/1800Z 13.9N 146.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  13/0600Z 14.5N 147.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  13/1800Z 15.4N 147.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

 72H  14/1800Z 16.6N 147.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  15/1800Z 17.9N 147.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  16/1800Z 19.4N 146.2W   35 KT  40 MPH



$$

FORECASTER POWELL