WTPA42 PHFO 081447

TCDCP2



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP072015

500 AM HST THU OCT 08 2015



OHO IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL SYSTEM. SATELLITE PRESENTATION

CONTINUES TO DEGRADE...WITH ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION PUSHED FAR

TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITHIN UNRELENTING 45 TO 55 KT OF SHEAR.

SHIPS ANALYSIS DEPICTS THIS SYSTEM PASSING OVER 22C WATER. THIN

LAYERED CLOUDS PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER...LLCC...BUT ANIMATION KEEPS FIX CONFIDENCE QUITE HIGH. WITH

NO DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE LLCC...RELIABLE SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON MET DECREASING ACCORDING TO THE

CONCEPTUAL MODEL. THEREFORE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSIGN AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT FOR THIS FINAL ADVISORY BASED ON THE

WEAKENING TREND.



INITIAL MOTION IS 020/37 KT...WITH THE DEEP TROUGH NORTHWEST OF

THIS SYSTEM PROVIDING THE ONLY MAIN INFLUENCE. WE COLLABORATED WITH

THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...OPC...FOR ALL POINTS ALONG THE

FORECAST TRACK. OPC CONTRIBUTED WIND AND SEAS RADII AS WELL. THE

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS OHO HEADED TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA AND

THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN CURVES THE TRACK

NORTHWESTWARD AT 36 AND 48 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE

NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF A LARGE POLAR LOW FORMING ACROSS THE

ALEUTIANS. AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM LOW...ITS WIND FIELD WILL

EXPAND AND BECOME HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM LAST TIME.

EXTRATROPICAL OHO WILL WEAKEN THROUGH 24 HOURS...SPINNING DOWN AT

THE MET RATE. HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC FORCES WILL STRENGTHEN THE

REMNANTS OF OHO BACK TO NEAR-HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT STILL AS AN

EXTRATROPICAL STORM LOW...BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. THIS STORM LOW

WILL THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY 48 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ALASKAN

PANHANDLE...THEN DISSIPATE INLAND BY 72 HOURS.



THIS IS THE LAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE

FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...OPC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP1 AND WMO

HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/1500Z 35.4N 141.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 12H  09/0000Z 42.5N 137.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  09/1200Z 52.5N 137.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  10/0000Z 57.0N 139.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  10/1200Z 60.0N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER POWELL