WTPA42 PHFO 072109

TCDCP2



HURRICANE OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP072015

1100 AM HST WED OCT 07 2015



SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OHO NO LONGER SHOWS AN EYE THIS MORNING. THE

LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.0/90

KT FROM HFO...SAB...AND JTWC WHILE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 5.2/95 KT.

I HAVE SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT.



IT APPEARS THAT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...VWS...AND LOWER SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...ARE FINALLY TAKING THEIR TOLL ON OHO.

UW-CIMSS SHOWED AN EXTREMELY HIGH VWS OF 46 KT FROM THE SOUTH

SOUTHWEST...WHILE SHIPS DATA SHOWED 23 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SST

IS DOWN TO 25.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL

WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS OHO STARTS TO BECOME

EXTRATROPICAL. IN COLLABORATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION

CENTER..OPC...WE HAVE FORECAST OHO TO BE POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL

IN 36 HOURS. AS OHO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS WIND FIELD WILL

EXPAND AND BECOME ASYMMETRIC...EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER OUT ON THE

EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.



THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 36

HOURS. OHO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RACING TOWARD THE NORTH

NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS OHO CROSSING EAST OF 140W INTO

THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

NHC...IN MIAMI FLORIDA AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT

NHC MAY TAKE OVER RESPONSIBILITY FOR FORECASTS ON OHO BEFORE IT

BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. WHEN THE SYSTEM DOES BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IT

WILL BECOME THE RESPONSIBILITY OF OPC AND WILL BE COVERED BY THE

OPC HIGH SEAS FORECASTS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/2100Z 26.6N 144.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  08/0600Z 31.4N 143.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  08/1800Z 38.0N 139.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  09/0600Z 46.0N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  09/1800Z 54.7N 130.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON