WTPA42 PHFO 060859

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP072015

1100 PM HST MON OCT 05 2015



EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES WITH THE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING...WE DID RECEIVE A 0409Z

WINDSAT PASS THAT PROVIDED A GOOD IDEA OF THE LOCATION OF THE

CENTER OF OHO. THIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO GAVE A GOOD VIEW OF THE

INNER STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY

IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE WAS ALSO A PARTIAL

EYEWALL FEATURE IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. THE ENVIRONMENTAL

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO NEAR 2 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST

ACCORDING TO THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ESTIMATE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.0/45 KT FROM

JTWC...AND 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT

ESTIMATE WAS 3.9/63 KT. WE HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO

60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE ADT ESTIMATE AND THE IMPROVING

APPEARANCE OF OHO IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/06 KT...AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS NORTHWEST

OF OHO. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN TOWARD THE SYSTEM...

IT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN NORTHEAST

OF OHO. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...

AND CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD MOTION TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK

CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGING TO THE

LEFT TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS

GUIDANCE.



THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM SHIPS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE

CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT OHO. UNTIL THAT

OCCURS...OHO WILL HAVE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE

INTENSIFYING...LIKELY BECOMING A HURRICANE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY

NIGHT. BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...OHO WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER COOLER

OCEAN TEMPERATURES...SO NOT ONLY WILL INCREASING SHEAR PROVIDE

DETRIMENTAL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING SOURCES OF

MOISTURE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CORE. WE HAVE MADE THE

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3...WITH OHO BEING ABSORBED BY A

LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON DAY 4.



AIRCRAFT FROM THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON WERE

SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO OHO EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THERE WERE

TECHNICAL PROBLEMS THAT FORCED THE AIRCRAFT TO RETURN TO HONOLULU.

IF NECESSARY...WE HAVE ANOTHER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE OHO

TUESDAY MORNING.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/0900Z 15.2N 152.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  06/1800Z 16.0N 151.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  07/0600Z 18.3N 149.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  07/1800Z 22.0N 147.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  08/0600Z 27.0N 145.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  09/0600Z 38.0N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  10/0600Z...ABSORBED



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON