WTPA45 PHFO 202055

TCDCP5



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015

1100 AM HST SUN SEP 20 2015



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FIVE-C HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER

THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW

CLOUD VORTICES ROTATING AROUND A MEAN ELONGATED CENTER WITH A

LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE

SOUTHWEST. DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT INDICATED BY BOTH UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND

SHIPS GUIDANCE...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE

EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 1.0 FROM PHFO/SAB AND 1.5 FROM JTWC.

WE WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY

PACKAGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS.



THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN

A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE

AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE

SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS SAME GENERAL

TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND

TONIGHT...AS THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE DEEP TROUGH STRENGTHENS. A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY

AND BEYOND...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE DEEP TROUGH. MOST

OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY WELL

CLUSTERED. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS

ADJUSTED MODESTLY AT 72 AND 96 HOURS TO INCORPORATE INPUT FROM THE

OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY PACKAGE. SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE

SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEAR CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE

LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY 24

HOURS...BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IVCN AND SHIPS

BUT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDI. THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 48 HOURS...AND SHOULD

HAVE COMPLETED THIS TRANSITION BEFORE 72 HOURS. THE 72 AND 96 HOUR

INTENSITY AND 72 HOUR WIND RADII FORECASTS WERE ALSO COORDINATED

WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND

WARNINGS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE

NATIONAL MONUMENT. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WE MAY BE ABLE

TO DISCONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LISIANSKI TO PEARL AND

HERMES LATER TODAY.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  20/2100Z 22.1N 173.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  21/0600Z 23.4N 172.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  21/1800Z 25.8N 172.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  22/0600Z 28.5N 172.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  22/1800Z 31.7N 172.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 72H  23/1800Z 37.5N 175.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  24/1800Z 43.7N 179.0E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER BURKE