WTPA44 PHFO 091441

TCDCP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  56

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015

500 AM HST WED SEP 09 2015



JIMENA IS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF

ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION /LLCC/ EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...

THE LATEST UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 1.5/25 KT. THE CURRENT

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB AND

PHFO...AND 1.5/25 KT FROM JTWC. THEREFORE...WE HAVE LOWERED THE

INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE LLCC IS 255/08 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS

WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION...WHICH IS DUE TO STEERING BY DEEP LAYER

RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AS JIMENA STARTS TO ROUND THE

RIDGE...IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE 24-36 HOUR

TIME PERIOD...AND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE 36-48 HOUR

INTERVAL. THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

DIGGING TOWARD JIMENA WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE

TO THE PREVIOUS WITH SOME SLIGHT NUDGING TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE

LATEST TVCN AND GFEX GUIDANCE.



THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE

VICINITY OF JIMENA FROM THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIP GUIDANCE INDICATE IT

IS GREATER THAN 30 KT FROM THE WEST. THIS STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST

TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE CHANCES OF JIMENA

RECOVERING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS INNER CORE ARE BECOMING

INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. THEREFORE...THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST

FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS STEADY

WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH JIMENA WEAKENING TO A

REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/1500Z 25.5N 155.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  10/0000Z 25.2N 156.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  10/1200Z 25.0N 158.5W   25 KT  30 MPH

 36H  11/0000Z 25.2N 159.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  11/1200Z 25.4N 160.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  12/1200Z 27.0N 163.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON