WTPA44 PHFO 082031

TCDCP4



TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015

ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2015



JIMENA IS A SHEARED CYCLONE AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION OF

LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF

THE CENTER. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE

CENTER...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO

DECREASE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE

GLOBAL MODELS SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER AS

QUICKLY AS 48 HOURS, AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT STRONG SHEAR

WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. ON THIS BASIS...THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR JIMENA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48

HOURS OR SO. THE LOW COULD REMAIN LINGERING FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.



THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 270

DEGREES AT 6 KT. SINCE JIMENA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT

WILL LIKELY BE STEERED SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN

WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 2

TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY TURN MORE

TO THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A NEW TROUGH

APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS

ONE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/2100Z 26.5N 153.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  09/0600Z 26.3N 154.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  09/1800Z 25.9N 156.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  10/0600Z 25.6N 158.1W   25 KT  30 MPH

 48H  10/1800Z 25.4N 159.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  11/1800Z 25.5N 161.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  12/1800Z 26.4N 163.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  13/1800Z 31.2N 166.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

FORECASTER AVILA