WTPA44 PHFO 040908

TCDCP4



HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015

1100 PM HST THU SEP 03 2015



THE EYE OF JIMENA REMAINS OBSCURED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD

THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE

SYSTEM IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...THE OUTFLOW

ALOFT CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLY HEALTHY AT THIS TIME. ALSO...THE

MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM WINDSAT AT 0348Z SHOWED A WELL DEFINED RING

OF HEAVY RAIN IN AN EYEWALL SURROUNDING A LARGE RAIN FREE CENTER.

THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF CURRENT INTENSITY WAS

4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT

INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 4.7/82 KT. BASED ON THESE VALUES...WE HAVE

LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT.



JIMENA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING...AND THE CURRENT MOTION

IS 315/04 KT. THERE IS A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JIMENA NEAR 17N 134W. THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL

RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 35N 155W DOWN TO 22N

153W. SINCE...JIMENA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...IT

APPEARS THAT BETA-DRIFT REMAINS ONE OF THE PRIMARY STEERING

MECHANISMS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEAK STEERING WILL LIKELY PERSIST

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK

STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST...AS THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH

TEMPORARILY SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE

EAST BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF JIMENA. THIS IS EXPECTED

TO RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. BY

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST

TO STRENGTHEN...AND JIMENA WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE WEST...AND

EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST FORECAST IS

CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK

IS NUDGED TO THE LEFT COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM DAYS 2

THROUGH 5. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND BETWEEN THE

TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.



THE LATEST ESTIMATE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM UW-CIMSS IS 14 KT

FROM 240 DEGREES AND 15 KT FROM 280 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS

GUIDANCE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL...

BUT STEADY WEAKENING...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF

WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST MODERATE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES...WHILE SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE

LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...AND VERY

CLOSE TO THE IVCN AND ICON CONSENSUS...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS

WEAKENING THAN THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  04/0900Z 19.5N 144.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  04/1800Z 19.9N 145.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  05/0600Z 20.6N 145.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  05/1800Z 21.5N 145.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  06/0600Z 22.7N 146.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  07/0600Z 24.6N 148.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  08/0600Z 25.0N 150.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  09/0600Z 24.6N 151.5W   40 KT  45 MPH



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON