WTPA44 PHFO 032054

TCDCP4



HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015

1100 AM HST THU SEP 03 2015



THE EYE OF JIMENA HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUD-FILLED SINCE THE

LAST ADVISORY...BUT A SMALL EYE STILL REMAINS THIS MORNING. LATEST

SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS SAB/JTWC/

PHFO ALL INDICATED DATA-T VALUES OF T4.5/77 KT. MEANWHILE...CURRENT

INTENSITY VALUES WERE 5.0/90 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...AND 5.3/97 KT

FROM UW-CIMSS ADT. BLENDING THESE ESTIMATES...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON

THE SUBJECTIVE VALUES...SUPPORTS A SLIGHT LOWERING...TO 90 KT...OF

THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE.



JIMENA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF NEARLY NON-EXISTENT STEERING

FLOW...WITH MID-LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED TO THE EAST...AND TO THE

DISTANT NORTH-NORTHWEST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH OF THESE

FEATURES IS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM...AND IT MAY JUST BE

THAT BETA-DRIFT IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM AT THIS TIME...AS THE

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 320/03 KT. THE LIGHT

STEERING FLOW AND NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR

THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY

BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON DAYS 2 THROUGH 4. TOWARD

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...JIMENA WILL BEGIN TO FEEL A STRONG

RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH...AND THE FORECAST RESPONDS BY TURNING

JIMENA TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE WEST

OF THE PREVIOUS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE UPDATED

TRACK FORECAST LIES ALONG THE PREVIOUS...BUT IS INDICATING A SLOWER

FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCN

AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL BUT STEADY

WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE

EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MODERATE SHEAR...NEAR 10 TO 15 KT...

IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH

TIME IT STEADILY INCREASES TO NEAR 25 KT BY DAY 3. THE FORECAST

TRACK ALSO TAKES JIMENA OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES

AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO

THE PREVIOUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT CONTINUES

TO BE HIGHER THAN THAT INDICATED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/2100Z 19.1N 144.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  04/1800Z 20.0N 144.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  05/0600Z 20.8N 145.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  05/1800Z 21.7N 145.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  06/1800Z 23.9N 146.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  07/1800Z 25.5N 148.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  08/1800Z 26.0N 149.5W   45 KT  50 MPH



$$



FORECASTER BIRCHARD