WTPA44 PHFO 030257

TCDCP4



HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015

500 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015



SINCE THIS MORNING THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN

AROUND HURRICANE JIMENA. AN SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AT 2357 UTC SHOWED

AN APPARENT EYEWALL ENCIRCLING MOST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE EYE IS

POORLY DEFINED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK ANALYSES WERE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING WITH JTWC AND PHFO

ANALYZING 5.0/90KT AND SAB ANALYZING 4.5/77 KT. I HAVE KEPT THE

INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST AT 04 KT.



FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO

CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST...STEERED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST

FROM A HIGH NEAR 41N152W. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO THE

FORWARD MOTION WILL REMAIN RATHER SLOW. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO CURVE

MORE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN MORE WEST

NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE

CYCLONE. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TO

THE MODEL CONSENSUS.



VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE

UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS LOW SHEAR OF AROUND 5 KT

FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWS ONLY 2 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE

WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT

27.5 DEGREES C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE

SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN

MORE RAPIDLY AFTER 48 HOURS AS SST DROPS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

INCREASES.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/0300Z 18.4N 143.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  03/1200Z 18.8N 143.9W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  04/0000Z 19.3N 144.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  04/1200Z 19.8N 144.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  05/0000Z 20.3N 144.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  06/0000Z 22.5N 145.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  07/0000Z 25.0N 147.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  08/0000Z 27.5N 149.5W   50 KT  60 MPH



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON