WTPA44 PHFO 022100

TCDCP4



HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015

1100 AM HST WED SEP 02 2015



SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT THE CLOUD TOPS AROUND HURRICANE JIMENA HAVE

WARMED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC ON INFRARED

IMAGERY. AN AMSU/B MICROWAVE PASS AT 1905 UTC STILL SHOWED AN

APPARENT EYEWALL ENCIRCLING MOST OF THE CENTER...BUT OPEN TO THE

WEST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FROM JTWC AND PHFO WERE

5.0/90KT...WITH 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB. I HAVE GONE WITH THE MAJORITY

AND SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 04 KT.



FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO

CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST...STEERED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST

FROM A HIGH NEAR 41N152W. THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO THE

FORWARD MOTION WILL REMAIN RATHER SLOW. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO CURVE

TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW RIDGING BUILDING MORE STRONGLY NORTHEAST OF

THE CYCLONE SO THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WEST. THE CURRENT

TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT IS A

BIT LEFT OF THE NEWER MODEL CONSENSUS.



VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE

UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS MODEST SHEAR OF AROUND 08 KT

FROM THE WEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWS ONLY 7 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE

NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT

27.6 DEGREES C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE

GRADUAL...STEADY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED

SLIGHTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ONE.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/2100Z 18.0N 143.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  03/0600Z 18.4N 143.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  03/1800Z 18.9N 144.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  04/0600Z 19.4N 144.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  04/1800Z 20.2N 144.9W   70 KT  80 MPH

 72H  05/1800Z 22.0N 145.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  06/1800Z 24.0N 146.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  07/1800Z 26.5N 148.5W   50 KT  60 MPH



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON