WTPA44 PHFO 021501

TCDCP4



HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015

500 AM HST WED SEP 02 2015



THE EYE OF JIMENA CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT. IN FACT...AS OF THIS ADVISORY ISSUANCE

THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO AN

APPARENT EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH HAD BEEN NOTED IN

MICROWAVE IMAGERY ON TUESDAY THAT WERE PROVIDED VIA THE NRL/FNMOC

WEB SITES. ALSO...THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WERE 6 KT FROM 285 DEGREES ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS

AND 11 KT FROM 315 DEGREES BASED ON THE SHIPS ANALYSIS.

THEREFORE...THIS SHEAR MAY BE DOING SOME HARM TO THE INNER CORE OF

JIMENA. NOTE THAT THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF

JIMENA CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLY HEALTHY. THE LATEST ADT AND THE

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE

5.0/90 KT. THE ESTIMATE FROM JTWC WAS 5.5/102 KT. THEREFORE...WE

WILL DROP THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOTE

THAT A PARTIAL 0722Z ASCAT PASS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE

OF JIMENA WAS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND RADII FOR THIS

ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.



THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY...AND IT IS NOW TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/07 KT. JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A

WEAKENING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED

NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS

INDICATE THIS STEERING MECHANISM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS...CAUSING JIMENA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND

DECREASE ITS FORWARD MOTION. THIS SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL

LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 2. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODEL

OUTPUT SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TO

THE NORTH OF JIMENA. THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JIMENA TO TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING

THE 3-4 DAY TIME PERIOD. THE 5 DAY POSITION NOW INDICATES A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE

TO THE PREVIOUS...WITH SOME SLIGHT NUDGING TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE

LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SST/ REMAIN NEAR 28C ALONG MOST OF THE

FORECAST TRACK. OF NOTE IN THE RECENT CIRA ANALYSES OF OCEAN HEAT

CONTENT /OHC/ IS THAT JIMENA APPEARS TO BE TRAVELING IN A LOCAL

MINIMUM OF THIS PARAMETER ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK. THESE LOWER

VALUES OF OHC MAY BE DUE TO PREVIOUS HURRICANES THAT HAVE RECENTLY

TRAVERSED THIS REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST SHIPS

GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHEAR. THESE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SLOW WEAKENING

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...COOLER SST VALUES AND

INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE

LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN OUR

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ICON...IVCN AND SHIPS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/1500Z 17.7N 142.8W   95 KT 110 MPH

 12H  03/0000Z 18.1N 143.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  03/1200Z 18.6N 143.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

 36H  04/0000Z 19.2N 144.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  04/1200Z 19.9N 144.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  05/1200Z 21.6N 144.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

 96H  06/1200Z 24.0N 145.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  07/1200Z 26.0N 147.0W   55 KT  65 MPH



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON