WTPA44 PHFO 020900

TCDCP4



HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015

1100 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2015



AT THE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY...THE EYE OF JIMENA APPEARS TO BE LESS

DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO

AN APPARENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH HAD BEEN NOTED IN

PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ALSO...THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATES OF

ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WERE 6 KT FROM 240 DEGREES

ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS AND 12 KT FROM 295 DEGREES BASED ON THE SHIPS

ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...THIS SHEAR MAY BE DOING SOME HARM TO THE INNER

CORE OF JIMENA. NOTE THAT THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE OUTFLOW

PATTERN OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLY HEALTHY. THE LATEST

ADT AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

PHFO...SAB AND JTWC WERE ALL 5.5/102 KT. THEREFORE...WE WILL

MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 100 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/08 KT. JIMENA

CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID

LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS STEERING MECHANISM WILL WEAKEN DURING

THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...CAUSING JIMENA TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION.

THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD

WITHIN 36 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO

SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH

OF JIMENA. THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JIMENA TO TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD. THE CURRENT FORECAST

TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...WITH SOME SLIGHT NUDGING

CLOSER TO THE LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SST/ REMAIN NEAR 28C ALONG MOST OF THE

FORECAST TRACK. OF NOTE IN THE LATEST CIRA ANALYSIS OF OCEAN HEAT

CONTENT /OHC/ IS THAT JIMENA APPEARS TO BE TRAVELING IN A LOCAL

MINIMUM OF THIS PARAMETER ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK. THESE LOWER

VALUES OF OHC MAY BE DUE TO PREVIOUS HURRICANES THAT HAVE RECENTLY

TRAVERSED THIS REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST SHIPS

GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHEAR. THESE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY SLOW WEAKENING

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...COOLER SST VALUES AND

INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE

LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/0900Z 17.7N 142.2W  100 KT 115 MPH

 12H  02/1800Z 18.1N 142.8W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  03/0600Z 18.6N 143.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  03/1800Z 19.1N 143.9W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  04/0600Z 19.7N 144.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  05/0600Z 21.2N 144.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

 96H  06/0600Z 23.5N 145.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  07/0600Z 26.0N 146.5W   60 KT  70 MPH



$$

FORECASTER HOUSTON