WTPA44 PHFO 020231

TCDCP4



HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015

500 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2015



THE EYE OF JIMENA IS WELL DEFINED ON BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE CENTER

LOCATION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.5/102 KT FROM

PHFO...SAB AND JTWC. MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A

CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE...SO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT MAY STILL BE IN

PROGRESS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 100 KT WITH AN

INITIAL MOTION OF 295 DEGREES AT 08 KT.



FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE

MOVING WEST NORTHWEST...STEERED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM

A HIGH NEAR 40N156W. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED

TO SLOW AND THE TRACK IS FORECAST CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE

STEERING FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH ALOFT DROPPING SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF

JIMENA. THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JIMENA TO TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE

RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.



VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE

UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS MODEST SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT

FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWS ONLY 6 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE

NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT

27.8 DEGREES C. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE

ONLY SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...COOLER

SST AND INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAPID

WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE

PREVIOUS ONE.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/0300Z 17.3N 141.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 12H  02/1200Z 17.7N 142.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  03/0000Z 18.3N 143.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  03/1200Z 18.7N 143.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  04/0000Z 19.3N 143.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  05/0000Z 20.8N 144.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

 96H  06/0000Z 23.0N 145.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  07/0000Z 25.0N 146.0W   60 KT  70 MPH



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON