WTPA43 PHFO 280852

TCDCP3



HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015

1100 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015



IGNACIO CONTINUES TO RESIST INTENSIFICATION...WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CDO

SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND OUTFLOW WHICH APPEARS A BIT HINDERED

ACROSS ITS EASTERN QUADRANT. THE LLCC LIKELY LIES NEAR THE NORTHWEST

EDGE OF THE CDO...WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION TO ITS SOUTHEAST SHOWING

MINUS 80 DEGREE CELSIUS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. NIGHTTIME CDO

POSITIONAL FIXES FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE LACK

OF A CONSISTENT INFRARED WARM SPOT SO FAR...BUT A TIMELY 0347 UTC

SSMIS PASS GREATLY INCREASES OUR 0600 UTC FIX CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 4.5...77 KT...FROM SAB TO

5.0...90 KT...FROM JTWC AND PHFO. CIMMS ADT DERIVED INTENSITY WAS 80

KT AT 0430 UTC AND THIS WILL BE OUR INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 295/10 KT...WITH IGNACIO

POSSIBLY STARTING TO SLOW AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK

OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY

PACKED...SHOWING A CONTINUED MOTION INITIALLY TO THE WEST

NORTHWEST...THEN NORTHWEST...THROUGH THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

ECMWF AND GFS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE RIGHT...PULLING CONSENSUS TO

THE RIGHT AS WELL. HWRF HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE RIGHT WHILE ALSO

INTRODUCING A BIT OF A CLOCKWISE CURVE TO THE TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS.

WE WILL WAIT AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE TO SEE IF CONSENSUS

SETTLES DOWN BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK.

THAT SAID...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY

TO THE RIGHT AT 72...96 AND 120 HOURS IN A NOD TO THE GUIDANCE

TREND...WHILE REMAINING ALMOST UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS.



WHILE A SMALL AMOUNT OF EASTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE

LOOP...AND PRESENT IN SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE...IGNACIO REMAINS IN

A RATHER FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT WITH SSTS IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES

CELSIUS. SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO

ABOUT 95 KT AT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARDS

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS

MORE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY

FOLLOWS THIS TREND...REPRESENTING LITTLE OR NO CHANGE FROM LAST

TIME. WHILE FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CHANGE...THIS ONE DEPICTS THE

CENTER OF IGNACIO PASSING QUITE CLOSE TO BUT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE

MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  28/0900Z 13.9N 143.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  28/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  29/0600Z 15.4N 146.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  29/1800Z 16.2N 147.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  30/0600Z 17.1N 149.1W   95 KT 110 MPH

 72H  31/0600Z 18.9N 151.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  01/0600Z 20.9N 154.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

120H  02/0600Z 23.0N 156.7W   65 KT  75 MPH



$$

FORECASTER POWELL