WTPA43 PHFO 050245

TCDCP3



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  45

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015

500 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2015



IGNACIO CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITHOUT

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO

BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THUS...AFTER COORDINATION WITH

THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING RECLASSIFIED AS A

55 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

OF 24C NOW...AND SST WILL LOWER QUICKLY ALONG THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUB-20C BY 36 HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD

ALLOW FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY

FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD

AGREEMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY

TO THE LEFT ONCE AGAIN TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS

PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER /OPC/ IN WASHINGTON D.C.



THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL

PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM

OPC FOR FUTURE FORECASTS UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER

FZPN01 KWBC.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/0300Z 35.5N 164.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  05/1200Z 37.6N 165.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 24H  06/0000Z 40.4N 165.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 36H  06/1200Z 42.5N 165.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 48H  07/0000Z 44.3N 164.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 72H  08/0000Z 48.4N 152.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  09/0000Z 50.3N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  10/0000Z 55.0N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD