WTPA43 PHFO 030852

TCDCP3



HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  38

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015

1100 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015



THE IGNACIO EYE FEATURE BECAME CLOUD COVERED JUST BEFORE THE 0600

UTC ANALYSIS CYCLE...BUT THE LLCC REMAINS RATHER EASY TO DISCERN

USING ANIMATION. THE CDO WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORMING NOW IS ABOUT 60

NM WIDE AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND

SOUTH. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE HINDERED TO THE NORTHWEST AND

SOUTHEAST. OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED

FROM 3.5...55 KT...FROM SAB TO 4.0...65 KT...FROM PHFO AND JTWC.

UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY WAS 67 KT. GIVEN THE RECENT EYE FEATURE...WE

WILL MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12 KT AS IGNACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE

NORTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. OVERALL

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. TRACK

GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...SPREADING A

BIT AFTERWARDS BUT DEPICTING A RECURVING PATH THROUGH THE FIVE DAY

FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE

AND SITS COMFORTABLY WITHIN THE TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48

HOURS. SINCE IGNACIO WILL LIKELY BE EXTRATROPICAL ON DAYS FOUR AND

FIVE...THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...OPC...WAS CONSULTED FOR

FORECAST POSITIONS ON THOSE DAYS. THE 96 AND 120 HOUR POSITIONS

FOLLOWS THE UKMET SOLUTION AS PER OPC.



LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IGNACIO

MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER WITHIN AN

ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING LESS THAN 20 KT OF SHEAR. SSTS BEGIN TO DROP

NOTICEABLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS...PROMPTING A

GRADUAL FORECAST WEAKENING AFTERWARDS. IGNACIO WILL LIKELY BEGIN

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 72 HOURS...OVER 22 DEGREE CELSIUS

WATER...THEN BECOME COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

THE 45 KT INTENSITY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS WAS COORDINATED WITH OPC.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/0900Z 28.2N 160.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  03/1800Z 29.2N 162.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  04/0600Z 31.4N 163.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  04/1800Z 33.8N 164.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  05/0600Z 36.3N 164.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 72H  06/0600Z 41.6N 163.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

 96H  07/0600Z 46.8N 160.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  08/0600Z 51.7N 146.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

FORECASTER POWELL