WTPA43 PHFO 030300

TCDCP3



HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122015

500 PM HST WED SEP 02 2015



DIMINISHING SHEAR IS GIVING IGNACIO A SECOND CHANCE AT BEING A

HURRICANE. A FAINT BUT DISCERNIBLE EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN FAIRLY

PERSISTENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE

HAD BEEN INTERMITTENT IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES EARLIER...THOUGH

MORE RECENTLY THE INFRARED PRESENTATION HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER FROM PHFO JUMPED TO 4.5...WITH SAB AND

JTWC REMAINING AT 3.5 AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...

MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS PERSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING A WEAK...SMALL

CIRCULAR EYEWALL FEATURE THAT IS NOT VERY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. WITH

ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED THE ADVISORY INTENSITY BACK TO 65 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/11 AND THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST

PHILOSOPHY. REDUCED SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD ALLOW FOR

IGNACIO TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN IN THE

SHORT TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A MID-LATITUDE

TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SCOOP IGNACIO NORTHWARD IN THE 36 TO

48 HOUR TIME FRAME. AT THAT TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER

MUCH COOLER WATER. IGNACIO WILL BE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY

AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 72 AND

96 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE

NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS

ONE THROUGH 96 HOURS...BUT THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND

FARTHER TO THE RIGHT AT DAY 5. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED EVEN AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES...THERE ARE SOME

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF IGNACIO AS IT TRAVERSES

THE FAR NORTH PACIFIC.



PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST WERE COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION

CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/0300Z 27.4N 159.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  03/1200Z 28.4N 161.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  04/0000Z 29.7N 162.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  04/1200Z 31.7N 163.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  05/0000Z 34.3N 164.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 72H  06/0000Z 39.6N 164.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  07/0000Z 45.0N 162.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  08/0000Z 49.3N 155.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

FORECAST R BALLARD