WTPA42 PHFO 261444

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015

500 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015



LOKE IS INTERACTING WITH A DEEP CUTOFF LOW CENTERED TO THE

SOUTHWEST. THE CORE OF LOKE REMAINS INTACT...BUT A 0813 UTC ASCAT

PASS REVEALED THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING ELONGATED WITH AN

ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE PROCESS OF TRANSITION

TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS BEGINNING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES WERE 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO AND SAB AND 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC.

THE ASCAT PASS REVEALED NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF 50 KT WINDS IN THE

NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GIVEN THE BIASES OF ASCAT...WINDS COULD BE

HIGHER...BUT FOR THIS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED

TO 50 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 320 DEGREES...AT 26 KT.

LOKE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD TODAY BETWEEN THE

DEEP LOW LOCATED ROUGHLY 400 MILES TO THE SOUTH AND STRONG HIGH

PRESSURE CENTERED 1300 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS

LOKE BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

FORMER TYPHOON ATSANI LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST

TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



THE CORE REMAINS INTACT FOR NOW AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN

10 KT...AND SOME OUTFLOW PERSISTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

HOWEVER...UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY DOWN TO

26C AND WILL BE STEADILY DECLINING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOKE CONTINUES TO

INTERACT WITH THE DEEP CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH...AND TRANSITION TO

AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE COMPLETE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AND ONLY SLOW

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE

SHIPS CLOSELY AND WAS DONE IN COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN

PREDICTION CENTER.











FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  26/1500Z 35.5N 177.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  27/0000Z 39.2N 179.4E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  27/1200Z 45.4N 174.7E   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  28/0000Z 51.6N 170.1E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER WROE