WTPA42 PHFO 252047

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015

1100 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015



DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 4.0/65KT FROM SAB AND HFO AND

3.0/45KT FROM JTWC. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HIGHER CLOUDS

AROUND LOKE ARE BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW LEVEL

CENTER IS STARTING TO BECOME EXPOSED. I HAVE DROPPED THE INITIAL

INTENSITY TO 60 KT AND DOWNGRADED LOKE TO A TROPICAL STORM.



A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE 1200 UTC POSITION WAS TOO

FAR NORTHEAST SO I HAVE RE-BESTED THAT POSITION. AFTER ADJUSTING

THE TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION FOR LOKE IS NOW TOWARD THE NORTH

AT 16 KT. DESPITE THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT...THE REASONING FOR THE

FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED. LOKE IS MOVING ALONG EAST OF A

DEEP AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE

MORE THAN 450 MILES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LOKE WILL TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY THEN TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS IT IS DRAWN INTO A

LARGER AND STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE

NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS CLOSELY WITHIN

A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



LOKE HAS BEGUN WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND

COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO

BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AS LOKE HEADS NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO BECOME

EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND DECREASE ELSEWHERE.

LOKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 36

HOURS. LOKE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE LOW THAT WAS ONCE TYPHOON

ATSANI IN 48 HOURS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  25/2100Z 31.0N 173.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  26/0600Z 33.2N 174.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  26/1800Z 36.7N 178.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  27/0600Z 41.6N 177.5E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON