WTPA42 PHFO 250903

TCDCP2



HURRICANE LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015

1100 PM HST MON AUG 24 2015



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LOKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE

PAST SIX HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGN OF AN EYE...BUT DVORAK

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND SAB CONTINUED TO COME IN

AT 4.0/65 KT. CIMSS ADT SUGGESTED A STRONGER 82 KT...WHILE JTWC

DVORAK ESTIMATE WAS A 3.5/55 KT. A BLEND OF THESE INPUTS SUPPORTS

KEEPING LOKE AT A 65 KT HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...OR 25 DEGREES...

AT 15 KT. LOKE IS MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP...NEARLY

STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 450 MILES TO

THE NORTHWEST. THE GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE

TONIGHT...AND LOKE WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE

NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW ON TUESDAY. LOKE WILL ACCELERATE TO THE

NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IS DRAWN INTO A LARGER AND STRONGER

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOKE WILL BE

UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE CURRENT

FORECAST HAS LOKE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW BY 72 HOURS.

THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE CONSENSUS WITHIN A RATHER

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



LOKE IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE SHORT

TERM THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. LOKE IS INTERACTING WITH THE DEEP LOW TO

THE NORTHWEST...WHICH IS PRODUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN

35 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS. THIS VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR WILL REMAIN OVER A VERY DEEP LAYER...AND WITH UNDERLYING SEA

TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARMER THAN 26.5C IN THE SHORT TERM...ONLY

SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. LOKE WILL LIKELY BEGIN

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED

BY THE LARGER DEEP LOW TO THE NORTHWEST BY 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE ICON

AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST BEGINS THE

WEAKENING TREND SLIGHTLY FASTER.



LOKE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE

HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE

PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM PEARL AND HERMES

ATOLL TO LISIANSKI ISLAND.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  25/0900Z 28.2N 174.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  25/1800Z 30.3N 173.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  26/0600Z 33.0N 175.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  26/1800Z 36.7N 178.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  27/0600Z 42.3N 175.6E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER WROE