WTPA42 PHFO 250256

TCDCP2



HURRICANE LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015

500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2015



OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS THE CLOUD TOPS OVER LOKE HAVE WARMED...BUT

AN INDISTINCT EYE HAS BEEN POPPING IN AND OUT OF VIEW ON VISIBLE AND

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

CAME IN AT T3.0/50KT FROM SAB...T3.5/55KT FROM PHFO...AND JTWC.

THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KT. I HAVE RAISED THE

INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT

CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN

GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW ALOFT DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF

LOKE. THIS LOW THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY

GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. THIS

WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEN

NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND A RAPID ACCELERATION IN

FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND

IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.



LOKE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-29C FOR

ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 30N.

WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE

MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD...THE MORE RAPID NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE

STORM SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING SUFFICIENTLY LOW RELATIVE SHEAR TO

ALLOW LOKE TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...KEEPING

LOKE AS A HURRICANE FOR THE 24 HOURS. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND

SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 24 HOURS...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS

INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. LOKE

IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 48

HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RAPIDLY ABSORBED

BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF TYPHOON ATSANI.



LOKE IS NOW PASSING BETWEEN PEARL AND HERMES REEF AND LISIANSKI

ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

HOWEVER...NOTE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE

EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF LOKE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL

CYCLONES CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  25/0300Z 26.7N 175.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  25/1200Z 28.6N 173.9W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  26/0000Z 31.5N 174.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  26/1200Z 34.6N 176.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  27/0000Z 39.0N 179.5E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON