WTPA42 PHFO 240911

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015

1100 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015



LOKE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...

WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO

THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T3.0/45KT FROM HFO/SAB...AND

T2.5/35KT FROM JTWC. THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS

INCREASED TO 67 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES...AND

WITH THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED 0600 UTC

DVORAK CENTER FIXES ADD CONFIDENCE TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF

030/11. THE PRIMARY FACTOR CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE DURING

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS

FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF

LOKE...THEN LINGER JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY. OBJECTIVE

TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48

HOURS...WITH LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE

NORTH THEN NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED

SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT THIS CYCLE AT TAU 24 THROUGH 48...AND THE

NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AS WELL TO

BE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN TRACK CONSENSUS. LOKE IS THEN

FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS

IT CONTINUES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR

MIDWAY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...LOKE IS FORECAST TO GO THROUGH AN

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE

EXTRATROPICAL LOW OF FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI.



LOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF

28-29C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND MIMIC TPW DATA

SHOW THAT THE AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MAY HAVE PREVIOUSLY

BEEN HINDERING LOKE/S DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. WHILE WESTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER

POLEWARD...THE INCREASING NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE STORM SEEMS TO BE

SUFFICIENT TO COUNTERACT THIS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE NEW INTENSITY

FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND BRINGS LOKE TO

HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN

AFTER 48 HOURS...AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST

TRACK DROP BELOW 27C.



NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL

STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE

NATIONAL MONUMENT WITH THIS ADVISORY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS

IN EFFECT FOR PEARL AND HERMES REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND...WITH

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MIDWAY ISLAND AND FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND

TO MARO REEF. NOTE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON

THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF LOKE. WITH AN AVERAGE 24 HOUR TRACK

ERROR OF 60 MILES...AND AN AVERAGE 36 HOUR ERROR OF 80 MILES...IT

IS STILL TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS AND ATOLLS

WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP

IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND

WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  24/0900Z 23.9N 178.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  24/1800Z 25.3N 177.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  25/0600Z 27.5N 175.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  25/1800Z 30.2N 174.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  26/0600Z 33.0N 175.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

 72H  27/0600Z 40.0N 177.0E   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  28/0600Z 50.0N 170.0E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  29/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW



$$

FORECASTER JACOBSON/TANABE