WTPA42 PHFO 232104

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015

1100 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2015



SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT LOKE HAS STARTED TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME

BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER DEEP CONVECTION BRIEFLY FADED OUT EARLY THIS

MORNING. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH

AN IMPROVED OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 35 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM JTWC.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE BASED

ON THE PHFO AND SAB ESTIMATES.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS 010/10 KT. THE MAIN

FEATURE GUIDING THE STEERING OF THE SYSTEM IS A MIDLATITUDE CUTOFF

LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE AREA NORTHWEST OF LOKE. THIS

WILL IMPART A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE

NORTHWEST AS THE CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE

IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PICTURE WITH THE GFS TRACK ON THE

RIGHT END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE NAVGEM...AND THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST...ON THE LEFT END. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN

ADJUSTED EAST TO ALIGN THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO THE DYNAMIC

MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...LOKE IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH

AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE

EXTRATROPICAL LOW OF FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI. THE FORECAST TRACK

BRINGS LOKE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE

NATIONAL MONUMENT DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.



LOKE IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...NEAR

29C...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES AT

LEAST 28C THROUGH 36 HOURS. LOKE STILL HAS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER PRIOR TO BECOMING AFFECTED BY THE

EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST

REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS LOKE TO A

PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN

CONSENSUS AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW SHIPS GUIDANCE.



NOTE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT

FORECAST TRACK OF LOKE. WITH AN AVERAGE 48 HOUR TRACK ERROR OF ABOUT

90 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH

ISLANDS AND ATOLLS WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO

IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL

CYCLONES CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  23/2100Z 21.8N 179.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  24/0600Z 23.2N 178.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  24/1800Z 24.9N 177.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  25/0600Z 26.8N 175.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  25/1800Z 29.2N 174.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  26/1800Z 34.5N 177.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  27/1800Z 41.5N 176.0E   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW



$$

FORECASTER KODAMA