WTPA42 PHFO 230853

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015

1100 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2015



DEEP CONVECTION AROUND LOKE WEAKENED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...

BUT AN AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER AND

TO THE NORTH OF THE ANALYZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 1.5/25KT TO 2.0/30KT...BUT

BASED ON THE EARLIER 2200 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS AND THE RECENT

IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAVE MAINTAINED LOKE AS A 35 KT

TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION OF LOKE IS ESTIMATED AT 345/08 KT. LOKE IS

CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AND A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST

PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE CYCLONE

WILL ROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD JUST TO THE EAST OF THE

INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. LOKE IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TO THE

NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS IT COMES UNDER

THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG

THE DATE LINE. THE GUIDANCE SUITE SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OR EAST FOR

THIS PACKAGE AT TAU 48 AND TAU 72...THEN SWINGS LOKE SHARPLY BACK TO

THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 72 HOURS...AS LOKE ROTATES AROUND THE

WELL-DEFINED CUTOFF LOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY. THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN THE MIDDLE

OF TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN IS SHIFTED

SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...

ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.

LOKE IS FORECAST TO MAKE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96...THEN

WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL

CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI.



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY NEAR 29C WITH AMPLE OCEAN

HEAT CONTENT...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL ONLY NEAR 5 KT BASED ON

THE 0600 UTC CIMSS ANALYSIS. WATER VAPOR AND MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOW DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE/S

CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO

INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT DESPITE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS. SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS

WITH LOKE PEAKING AT 55 KT BY 72 HOURS. THIS IS CLOSE TO LGEM BUT

BELOW SHIPS AND ABOVE THE HWRF. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WIND RADII A

BIT AT THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...AS INDICATED BY DRCL AND GLOBAL

MODEL GUIDANCE.



INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT

SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE. IF CURRENT FORECAST

TRENDS CONTINUE...WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS INCREASING...WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF

THE AREA ON SUNDAY.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  23/0900Z 19.5N 179.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  23/1800Z 20.6N 179.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  24/0600Z 22.4N 179.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  24/1800Z 24.2N 177.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  25/0600Z 26.3N 176.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  26/0600Z 31.0N 175.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  27/0600Z 37.0N 179.5E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  28/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW



$$

FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON