WTPA42 PHFO 222047

TCDCP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015

1100 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2015



DEEP CONVECTION NEAR LOKE BECAME DISORGANIZED LAST NIGHT BUT RECENT

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT A NEW CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS

DEVELOPED IN ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RECENT BAND DEVELOPMENT

SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING TREND HAS ENDED FOR NOW AND THE INITIAL

INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. THIS IS CONSISTENT

WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB. THE JTWC ESTIMATE

CAME IN AT 35 KT BUT WAS HELD UP DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.



LOKE IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING AT 325/7 KT BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A WEAK MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.

THE STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN MODEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST SUITE OF

OBJECTIVE AIDS IS TIGHTLY GROUPED...SHOWING A CONTINUED NORTHWEST

TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE

NORTHEAST. BEYOND 96 HOURS...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT

THAT LOKE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME CAPTURED

WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

THE FORMER SUPER TYPHOON ATSANI. THUS...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS

CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS A

LITTLE FASTER AT THE LATER TIME PERIODS TO LINE UP CLOSER TO THE

DYNAMIC CONSENSUS.



THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND LOKE APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR

INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C AND

VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AT AROUND 4 KT BASED ON THE 1800 UTC

CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE MAIN POSSIBLE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS AN AREA OF

DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE INGESTING FROM THE NORTH

AND WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS DRIER AIRMASS MAY CONTINUE

TO AFFECT LOKE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE

FORECAST KEEPS LOKE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24

HOURS...THEN STRENGTHENS IT TO A TROPICAL STORM AROUND 36 HOURS.

THIS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHIPS THROUGH 48

HOURS...BUT BELOW SHIPS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT

SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  22/2100Z 18.1N 178.6W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  23/0600Z 19.1N 179.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  23/1800Z 20.6N 179.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  24/0600Z 22.4N 179.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  24/1800Z 24.3N 178.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  25/1800Z 28.6N 175.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  26/1800Z 33.0N 177.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  27/1800Z 37.0N 180.0E   45 KT  50 MPH



$$

FORECASTER KODAMA