WTPA42 PHFO 220231

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015

500 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2015



THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF LOKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE

PAST SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS INTENSITY

ESTIMATES WERE 2.5 FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC. THUS WE HAVE KEPT THE

INTENSITY AT 40 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.



LOKE PRESENTLY LIES BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID

LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST RESULTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD

MOTION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER

CLUSTERED WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS

WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST BEYOND 48 HOURS AS LOKE

BEGINS TO FEEL A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE

RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST

ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE.



WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 6 KT FROM UW-CIMSS AND UP TO 8 KT

FROM SHIPS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THESE

LEVELS THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT OF AN

INCREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS. SST VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 28C THROUGH

DAY 4 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS ALONG ITS PATH AROUND DAY 5 AS

LOKE GAINS LATITUDE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE

SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PEAK IN

STRENGTH AT ABOUT 55 KT ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WITH SOME WEAKENING ON DAY 5

DUE TO COOLER SST VALUES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR.



INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE THIS WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  22/0300Z 16.7N 177.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  22/1200Z 17.4N 177.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  23/0000Z 18.4N 178.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  23/1200Z 19.6N 179.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  24/0000Z 21.1N 179.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  25/0000Z 24.0N 178.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  26/0000Z 27.1N 176.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  27/0000Z 30.7N 175.6W   50 KT  60 MPH



$$

FORECASTER BURKE