WTIO31 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 91.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 91.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.8N 91.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.5N 91.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 22.9N 90.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.1N 89.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 91.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, SLIGHTLY-ELONGATED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 290321Z METOPA 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 290325Z BYU HI-RES SCATTEROMETER IMAGE INDICATES 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDING AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS, THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS. TC 02B IS COMMENCING A SLOW POLEWARD TURN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, TC 02B SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//