WTPS31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 6.3S 160.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 6.3S 160.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 6.9S 160.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 7.4S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 8.0S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 8.8S 157.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 10.3S 154.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 6.4S 160.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 823 NM EAST NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FULLY EXPOSED HAS REESTABLISHED A CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND IS ATTEMPTING TO CONSOLIDATE. THE 021555Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS ATTEMPTING TO REFORM WHILE THE 021115Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LOOSELY CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WIND BARBS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS, THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ASSESSMENTS, AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH ADEQUATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HELPING TO REFORM THE OVERHEAD CONVECTION. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL IT DRAGS ACROSS THE SOLOMON ISLANDS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS, BUT GIVEN THE DIFFICULTIES OBSERVED WHEN THE SYSTEM LAST ATTEMPTED THIS FORECAST TRACK IT SEEMS UNLIKELY. THIS DISAGREEMENT IN FORECAST SCENARIO YEILDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. THE FORECAST SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS REMAINS AS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z. //