WTPS31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 8.7S 160.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 160.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 9.8S 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 11.1S 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 12.7S 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.1S 156.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 159.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSISTENT CURVED CONVECTION OVERHEAD AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 031539Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK SPIRAL BANDING CURVATURE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC AS IT TRACKS BETWEEN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND EIR ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE SOLOMON ISLANDS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS WELL AS A LONGER TRACK LIFE, BUT GIVEN THE DIFFICULTIES OBSERVED WHEN THE SYSTEM LAST ATTEMPTED THIS FORECAST TRACK IT SEEMS UNLIKELY. THIS DISAGREEMENT IN FORECAST SCENARIO YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z. //