WTIO31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 60.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 60.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.8N 59.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.9N 58.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 20.9N 58.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 59.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS AN OBSCURED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AS SUCH, THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MSI WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CI FROM PTGW AND KNES TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 01A REMAINS IN AN AREA OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS WHICH IS OFFSET BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC ASHOBAA IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE NORTH EAST. THIS STR WILL MAINTAIN ITS STEERING INFLUENCE, MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND BY TAU 24. EXPECT DECAY IN THE INTENSITY FO THE SYSTEM DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LAND INTERACTION FROM TAU 24 THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//