WTIO31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 60.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 60.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.9N 60.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.9N 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.9N 58.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.9N 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 60.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS THE BULK OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN OBSCURED LLCC WITH SOME BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 11010348 SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND REINFORCES THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF ASHOBAA AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS AS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE DETERIORATING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TC 01A IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VWS WHICH IS OFF SET BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC ASHOBAA IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FORMING STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS STR WILL MAINTAIN ITS STEERING INFLUENCE, MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF MASIRAH BY TAU 36. EXPECT DECAY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LAND INTERACTION FROM TAU 36 THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//