WTIO31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 21.2N 61.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 61.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.4N 61.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.6N 60.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.7N 59.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.7N 58.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.5N 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 61.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LLCC. A 092146Z GCOM-W1 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT 25-KM IMAGE SHOWS 50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PAKISTAN, WHICH IS OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED NEAR TAU 24 AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS NOW IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 01A MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS, HOWEVER, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 36 DUE TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH LAND AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//