WTIO31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 62.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 62.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.3N 61.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 21.5N 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.7N 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.8N 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.6N 56.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 62.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 091649Z METOP-A 89 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS POSITION IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION ANALYZED ON A 091651Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE. THE ASCAT 25-KM IMAGE SHOWS 50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND, ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PAKISTAN, WHICH IS OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED NEAR TAU 24 AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS NOW IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 01A MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, HOWEVER, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 DUE TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH LAND AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//