WTIO31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ASHOBAA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 65.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 65.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 21.0N 64.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.8N 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 22.5N 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 23.1N 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 23.6N 60.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 23.6N 58.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.4N 56.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 64.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT, A 082355Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POISTIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED SOLELY ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. TC 01A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO SLOW BRIEFLY THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES TO A BUILDING STR OVER AFGHANISTAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, TC 01A SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND LAND INTERACTION. THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK TO A BIFURCATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING AN UNLIKELY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTWARD-TRACKING GROUP OF GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//