WTIO31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 66.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 66.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.5N 65.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 20.6N 64.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.4N 63.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 22.1N 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 22.7N 62.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 23.1N 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.8N 60.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 66.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE LLCC HAS MOVED UNDER THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, HOWEVER A 080512Z METOP-B 89 GHZ REVEALS A SLIGHT HOOK FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE DATA WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KTS, JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES, DUE TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH 20-25 KNOTS OF VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01A CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYERED HIGH ANCHORED IN NORTHERN INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSION. BY TAU 36 THERE IS A SMALL BREAK IN THE OVERALL STR STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THAT BREAK. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO ITS PEAK OF 70 KNOTS AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL BE AT ITS MAXIMUM. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TC 01A WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE RIDGE OVER IRAN WILL BECOME THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE, FORCING THE SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF OMAN. DUE TO LOW OHC, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR, AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, EXPECT DECAY IN THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//