WTIO31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 67.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 67.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 19.0N 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 20.3N 65.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 21.5N 64.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 22.5N 63.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 23.3N 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 23.9N 62.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 24.5N 61.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 67.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072230Z SSMI IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01A REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SUPPORTING THE DEEPENED CONVECTION. TC 01A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. AFTER TAU 36, A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND MODIFY THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUSING TC 01A TO SLOW DOWN. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//