WTIO31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 68.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 68.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 17.8N 67.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.2N 66.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 20.6N 65.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.7N 65.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 22.6N 64.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.4N 62.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 24.1N 61.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 68.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 497 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071643Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND CIMMS SATCON OF 44 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01A IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TC 01A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN UNDER INFLUENCE OF INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//