WTIO31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 68.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 68.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 17.4N 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 19.1N 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 20.5N 66.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 21.5N 65.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 22.8N 64.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 23.6N 62.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 24.2N 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 68.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO REVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 070956Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REINFORCES THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC IN ADDITION TO FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KTS DUE TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM DESPITE THE SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE AROUND THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25KTS) VWS WHICH IS ONLY PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TC 01A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. EXPECT MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OF 01A OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, PEAKING AT 65 KTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP HIGH. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, EXPECT A BUILDING STR IN EASTERN IRAN NORTHWEST OF TC 01A TO TAKE OVER AS THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM, FORCING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. DUE TO INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS, EXPECT SOME DECAY IN OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. DUE TO LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//