WTXS31 PGTW 301500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 110.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 110.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.5S 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.0S 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 23.6S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.1S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 110.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A SMALL WARM SPOT IN THE BD CURVE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SPIRAL BANDING HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A 301151Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MODERATE, BUT DECLINING, ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 TO ILLUSTRATE THE DETERIORATING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONES CORE AND A SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS. TC QUANG IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 24S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES PRIOR TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//