WTXS31 PGTW 282000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001// REF A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280851Z APR 15// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 110.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 110.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.4S 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.2S 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.1S 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 18.2S 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 20.3S 111.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 23.6S 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 25.8S 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 109.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LLCC FEATURE IN THE 281427Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, IT IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NER AXIS AND RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LEARMONTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PROMOTING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS AT TAUS 36-48. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS, AND THE INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF LEARMONTH SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE INLAND BY END OF FORECAST DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN AN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280900).//