WTPS32 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (SOLO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 161.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 161.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.9S 162.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.9S 164.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.3S 167.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 23.0S 170.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 27.8S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 161.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (SOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING BENEATH A COLD DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT, AS SEEN ON THE INFRARED BD CURVE, HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 102238Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED SHALLOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC SOLO IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 23P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TC SOLO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THESE FACTORS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//