WTXS32 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 23.3S 68.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 68.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 25.4S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 27.2S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 28.7S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 30.4S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 34.2S 70.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 68.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 26 NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A 77 TO 90 KNOT RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND CONSIDERS A 79 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY POOR AS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS NOW AT 30 KNOTS OR GREATER. THE VWS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, VALUES SHOULD REACH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE NOW BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, CONTRIBUTING TO THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. TC 22S IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AS THIS STR BUILDS, TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PRIOR TO ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND UNFAVORABLE SST WILL WEAKEN JOALANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 36. TC 22S WILL MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS AS IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. //