WTXS32 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 66.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 66.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.5S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 21.0S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 23.2S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 25.5S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 27.8S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 30.9S 70.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 66.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHT BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 100316Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE SHOWS THIS TIGHT WRAPPING AS WELL AS A MORE RECENT (100451Z) AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LOCATION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS MAINTAINED DUE TO AGREEING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC JOALANE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 24 WHEN A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL TAKE OVER THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD TURN AT TAU 48-72 AS THE STR REORIENTS. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL CAUSE TC JOALANE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//