WTXS32 PGTW 090100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 65.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 65.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.4S 65.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.7S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 20.1S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 21.6S 68.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 25.7S 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 28.1S 70.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 30.9S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 65.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST- WARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND SPIRAL BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE ON THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AFTER TAU 36 BUT WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. TC JOALANE WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 24, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.//