WTXS32 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 63.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 63.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.5S 63.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.5S 64.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.6S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.6S 65.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.8S 67.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 24.6S 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 27.9S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 63.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 468 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME EXPOSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY; HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE CORE AS DRY AIR FROM THE WEST IS BEING PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION. A 080008Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONCURRING AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 CELSIUS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST NEAR TAU 72, WHICH WILL TURN THE TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD. TC JOALANE WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS MOST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. BEYOND TAU 36, TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VWS AND REDUCED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BEGINNING ITS WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AND BEGIN SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SSTS DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND THE SYSTEM GETS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WHERE IT WILL BEGIN ADVECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM, OVERALL JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//