WTXS32 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 62.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 62.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 15.2S 63.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.1S 63.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.2S 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.3S 64.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 20.4S 66.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 23.3S 67.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 26.9S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 62.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENED CONVECTION AND SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LARGE 35 NM EYE. A 071052Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THERE IS A 35 KNOT INCREASE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 22S IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TC JOALANE TO FURTHER INTENSITY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOT BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM, OVERALL JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//